Size a Texas grocery buy against wet-dry maps and H-E-B weather

Texas is not one grocery market — it is a wet-dry election map laid over H-E-B weather and border corridors that refuse a single multiple. County Business Patterns 2023 counted 3,739 NAICS 445110 establishments (supermarket and other grocery formats excluding convenience, all legal forms) against a Vintage 2024 population of 31,290,831 as of July 1, 2024. Those sourced figures describe enormous industry scale. They are not a for-sale board, not sold comps, and not a SNAP-retailer census — this pack left SNAP retailer counts null. Through Grocery Store Business Broker / HedgeStone Business Advisors, Jason Taken sizes Lone Star files against privilege class and competitive weather before asking price. Book a confidential intro carrying county wet-dry status, TABC class at the address, and thirteen weeks of sales named by corridor. Email jason.taken@hedgestone.com when that map matches the tape.

Open with the wet-dry election, not the asking price

Alcohol is Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission. Beer and wine in grocery are common in wet jurisdictions — verify the county wet-dry election map for the exact address, including municipal carve-outs that can surprise buyers who only checked the county label. Package-store off-premise spirits are a separate license class; publicly traded retailers face additional package-store restrictions, and Texas is not treated as a general grocery-spirits state on the secondary lists this pack uses. Wet-dry elections and package-store cap rules can still shape value. Verify TABC at the address.

TABC must approve the incoming owner; package-store licenses can have separate value and ownership limits. An asset purchase does not automatically move beer-wine privileges — or any package-store interest — to the buyer. Privilege lag belongs in the payment calendar next to retail food. Liquor license due diligence is the national worksheet; Texas adds the wet-dry gate and the package-store class split. A CIM that capitalizes spirits gross the grocery cannot keep is fiction, not SDE. Prior SNAP authorization does not move with the keys — USDA FNS requires a new retailer application.

H-E-B home turf versus Austin specialty and DFW strips

San Antonio and large parts of South Texas sit inside H-E-B’s home market. Price perception, trip-stealing, and labor competition differ from Austin specialty and Hispanic independents — where occupancy conversations often run hotter — and from DFW corridors that mix conventional independents with immigrant strips. Do not paste a San Antonio H-E-B-adjacent week onto an Austin specialty box or a Plano suburban independent. Walk the competitive set on a weekday and a weekend; H-E-B weather is felt in wage pressure and trip share, not only in circular pricing.

Corpus Christi and Coastal Bend independents add Gulf tourism texture that neither San Antonio nor Austin models capture — split summer lodging weeks from year-round neighborhood trips before you capitalize a peak. Lubbock and West Texas boxes can look “steady” on a CIM while still living inside thin alternate-buyer pools and long warehouse runs. Treat each metro as its own credit story.

H-E-B, Kroger banners, Walmart, and Aldi set competitive weather across much of the state. They are weather, not live sold comps for your independent. Associated Wholesale Grocers, C&S Wholesale Grocers, and UNFI terms — drop minimums, over-advances, personal guarantees — travel with the buyer. Read the warehouse letter before you argue a trophy multiple. Owners’ sibling brief: sell a grocery in Texas.

Houston Asian and Hispanic corridors, El Paso, Rio Grande Valley

Houston’s Asian and Hispanic independents run SKU depth, DSD cadence, and shrink risk that DFW suburbs do not share. Produce turns and specialty meat cutters often decide whether the week clears after hired labor. Bellaire, Alief, and Southwest Freeway corridors do not share one shrink clock with East End or Near Northside boxes — walk the actual competitive set. El Paso and Rio Grande Valley files carry border mix, different banner pressure, and supply-line realities that Austin slogans ignore. McAllen–Edinburg–Mission and Brownsville weeks can look strong on a teaser while still depending on cross-border trip patterns that shift with exchange rates and inspection delays — ask for multi-year seasonality, not a single peak month. Underwrite the corridor you will operate. Buying an ethnic market outside your community is the caution when language and community trips are the moat.

Federal Healthy Food Financing Initiative notices may touch food-access tracts in Houston, border cities, or rural counties — verify current CDFI Fund / HFFI notices. Never invent a subsidy dollar into purchase price. A neighborhood week that already rings does not become stronger because a banner left the corridor — ask for scan proof.

Fort Worth and Arlington independents inside the DFW orbit can look interchangeable with Dallas on a statewide teaser while facing different immigrant corridors and different wage pressure — drive each strip. College Station and Waco secondary markets often carry thinner alternate-buyer pools; price that liquidity risk into the multiple, not into wishful thinking about statewide demand.

Comptroller exemption and Publication 96-280 prepared-food lines

Texas generally exempts eligible grocery food from state sales tax. Prepared food, many heated items, and defined snack and soft-drink categories are taxable under Comptroller Publication 96-280 for grocery and convenience stores. Heated deli and bakery cases are where buyers most often treat taxable volume as if it were exempt — fix the taxonomy before you capitalize “tax-free” margin. Soft drinks and defined snack categories under Pub 96-280 create the same overstatement when cashiers ring them as exempt grocery. Comptroller returns may back a sales narrative and surface successor-liability questions, yet they never replace department scan data. Have counsel decide whether this asset deal needs clearance language or escrow. Bulk-sale repeals elsewhere do not answer Lone Star successor questions. Park state grocery sales tax notes and the bulk sales and tax clearance checklist next to the POS map for each department.

Health departments, WIC, lottery, tobacco

Texas Department of State Health Services and local city or county health departments sit on retail food. Harris County is not Travis County; El Paso is not Hidalgo. Last year’s clean inspection is not your permit. Incoming operators need a current retail food approval. WIC sits with Texas Department of State Health Services — WIC. Texas Lottery is a named desk on many independents — confirm ticket equipment and commission treatment. Tobacco routes through the Texas Comptroller or TABC as applicable.

In Houston and border metros, ask specifically about pest-control contracts, produce cooler capacity, and any pending health-plan items that travel with the address. A CIM that skips the last three inspections is not “clean” — it is incomplete. Budget a compliance buffer in working capital when the meat room or hot-food case sits near a prior warning.

Hire at real Houston and border wages, then run coverage

DOL’s consolidated table lists Texas at the federal $7.25 floor. Still staff Houston, DFW, San Antonio, Austin, and border corridors at wages you will actually pay — the floor is not the market in dense metros. Strip unpaid owner weeks. Reverse related-party rent that dies Monday. Leave recurring shrink in earnings. Tie the week to scan and EBT deposits. A storewide teaser without department mix is marketing. Method: recasting a grocery P&L.

Annual cash flow over annual debt service after that rebuild is DSCR. Plug TABC lag and hired labor into the SBA 7(a) payment and DSCR calculator before naming a multiple. Definition: what is DSCR for a grocery acquisition. Method: valuation hub.

Lease economics without inventing a statewide rent table

Most independents lease. Sum base rent, CAM, taxes, and insurance you will pay; divide by proved sales. Run the rent-as-percent-of-sales checker on the data-room lease. This pack does not publish a Texas grocery rent-per-foot table — do not invent one. Short remaining term without options is a price cut. Start lease assignment early; lease due diligence covers exclusive use, co-tenancy, and CAM true-ups. Austin specialty occupancy is not San Antonio H-E-B-adjacent occupancy, and neither matches El Paso border economics. If the seller owns the box, price realty separately after ops are recast on market rent — buying a store with real estate is two prices.

DFW suburban centers can look “cheap” on a per-foot teaser while CAM and taxes erase the advantage. Rio Grande Valley leases may carry different insurance and security costs that never appear in a statewide circular. Put the corridor’s real occupancy stack in the model before you argue that Texas rent is uniformly favorable.

Equity, inventory, the $5 million ceiling, Lone Star FNS downtime

At close you need purchase equity, inventory at cost (tags are not cost), working capital for the next drop, closing costs, and a reserve through FNS downtime. Hold back unsellable — closing-day inventory procedures. An over-advance is debt. Tools: cash-to-close estimator and how much money you need.

SBA 7(a) change-of-ownership credit tops out at the published $5 million maximum. Use that figure as a structuring cap, never as a Houston valuation quote. Keep package-store market value out of grocery earnings when the series is a separate asset. Lenders still underwrite recast SDE, believable hours, inventory at cost, and a dated FNS calendar. SOP equity-injection percents are not invented here. Plenty of Texas independents never approach the cap because hired-labor cash flow cannot carry a larger note.

Write into the LOI that the buyer files a new SNAP retailer application — prior authorization does not transfer. EBT / SNAP diligence belongs beside inventory math. In Houston Hispanic corridors and many border neighborhoods, EBT can be a material share of the week — budget payroll, rent, and the next drop while the PIN pad is dark. Worksheet: how much working capital do I need. Checklist: closing and license checklist.

Scan proof, bilingual transition, closing calendar

Lenders who already shop H-E-B will demand department scan and EBT deposits that match the bank. Gaps mean mix fiction, downtime, or both. Use verifying sales with scan data and evaluating a store’s P&L. Walk when cash never hits the account — red flags that should kill a grocery deal.

When bilingual cutters and cashiers carry Houston or border mix, name training hours in the APA. Transition periods and employee, union, and WARN issues belong in the LOI. On Asian Houston corridors, produce and specialty grocery buyers who know the vendors can matter as much as the cutter — identify those relationships before Monday after close. The first quarter after keys is warehouse trust, shrink control, and refusing a banner fantasy the lease will not allow — post-closing 90-day plan. After NDA: surviving due diligence.

Date wet-dry / TABC confirmation, retail-food filing, new SNAP application, landlord consent, and warehouse guarantees as separate LOI items. Sequence: how to buy a grocery store step by step. Hub: buy a grocery store.

Book a confidential intro with proof of funds, the wet-dry map printout, and the corridor you will actually run. Jason will say whether coverage holds and which Texas desk still has to move.

How a buyer would price Size a Texas grocery buy against wet-dry maps and H-E-B weather

Use this napkin recast on Size a Texas grocery buy against wet-dry maps and H-E-B weather when you book the call. It is labeled illustrative. BizBuySell's 2025 grocery sold-business earnings multiple averaged 3.38, with a 2021-2025 IQR of 1.60-3.15. State pages add the tax, wage, and alcohol-agency facts for this jurisdiction. They do not invent a local sold-comp set.

Input or output	Illustrative figure
Weekly sales (illustrative)	$168,000
Annual sales	$8,736,000
Recast SDE	$358,176 (4.1% of sales)
Inventory at cost	$436,800 (~20 turns)
Occupancy check	$235,872 / year (2.7% of sales)
Low going-concern	$1,099,426 at 1.85x SDE + inventory
High going-concern	$1,511,328 at 3.00x SDE + inventory
Sketch DSCR on a note	1.49

Rent at 2.7% of sales is the occupancy check. If the real lease is higher, the SDE in this table is too generous until you recast to market rent.

Bring proof of funds or a lender pre-screen, your format, and geography. Jason will tell you whether a store like this can clear SBA or seller-carry math.